By CrypticJungle · Cryptohub Research · Data through 2026-09-30 · Published 2026-10-15
AI-assisted. The text is drafted by AI (Anthropic's Claude) from the data shown on this page, then reviewed and published by CrypticJungle, who is responsible for it. The AI may only use figures from the data shown on this page.
September 2026 was defined by a sharp turn in the middle of the month. Bitcoin's daily close sat at $75,622.80 on September 16, then reached $86,120.19 by September 22. Ether and Solana followed the same path, and the Cryptohub Macro Cycle Score recorded its month low of 36 on September 16 and its month high of 51 on September 22. September 21 stood out in the derivatives and ETF data: US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $999M that day, and BTC liquidations reached $599M.
Bitcoin finished September up 6.48% at $83,649, Ether returned 8.82% and Solana returned 14.51%. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded +$2.65B of net inflows and BTC exchange balances fell by 20,676 BTC. The cycle score ended at 47/100, and total DeFi TVL closed at $94.67B. On the macro side, the effective Fed funds rate ended the month at 3.88% and the US 10-year yield at 5.29%. Two sections of this report, the bull market peak board, where 0 of 30 indicators had reached their targets, and whale positioning, are as of October 15. The sections below take each dataset in turn, from price action and flows to on-chain readings, DeFi and the macro backdrop.
Bitcoin gained 6.48% in September 2026, closing at $83,649.
| Asset | Open | Close | High | Low | Return % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 78,557.8 | 83,648.98 | 87,158.43 | 75,383.71 | 6.48 |
| ETH | 2,468.24 | 2,686 | 2,782.33 | 2,371.22 | 8.82 |
| SOL | 103.16 | 118.13 | 124.42 | 96.43 | 14.51 |
Bitcoin gained 6.48% in September 2026, closing at $83,649, after opening the month at $78,557.80. Its range for the month ran from a low of $75,383.71 to a high of $87,158.43. Ether returned 8.82% and closed at $2,686, within a range of $2,371.22 to $2,782.33. Solana returned 14.51% and closed at $118.13, after trading between $96.43 and $124.42.
All three assets bottomed together in the middle of the month. Daily closes on September 16 were $75,622.80 for Bitcoin, $2,390.61 for Ether and $97.43 for Solana. By September 22 the closes had reached $86,120.19, $2,753.12 and $118.48. Solana's daily close was $122.21 on September 25, while Bitcoin and Ether eased to $84,069.47 and $2,692 on the same day. All three then held fairly steady into month end, with Bitcoin closing at $83,514.23 on September 28 and $83,648.98 on September 30. The Altcoin Season Index ended the month at 68/100.
Source: CoinGecko, CoinGlass. Daily closes at 00:00 UTC. Monthly open is the last close of the previous month.
The Cryptohub Macro Cycle Score ended September 2026 at 47/100 (Lower Mid-Range), up 3 points from the end of the previous month.
| Dimension | Score (month end) | Change over month |
|---|---|---|
| rotation | 63.1 | 22.6 |
| structure | 5 | -14.6 |
| cycle | 31.7 | -11.6 |
| crossmarket | 44.7 | 4.5 |
| retail | 28.5 | -3.3 |
| leverage | 42.3 | 2.8 |
| mining | 46.7 | 2.5 |
| sentiment | 71.3 | 1.3 |
| onchain | 35.8 | 0.3 |
| institutional | 100 | 0 |
The Cryptohub Macro Cycle Score ended September 2026 at 47/100 (Lower Mid-Range), up 3 points from the end of the previous month. The month average was 44.6/100. The score reached a high of 51 on September 22 and a low of 36 on September 16, the same two dates on which Bitcoin's sampled daily closes were $86,120.19 and $75,622.80.
Across the ten dimensions, the month-end scores diverged widely. Institutional stood at 100, unchanged over the month, and sentiment stood at 71.3, up 1.3. Rotation scored 63.1, up 22.6 over the month. Structure scored 5, down 14.6, and cycle scored 31.7, down 11.6. Crossmarket was at 44.7 (up 4.5), leverage at 42.3 (up 2.8), mining at 46.7 (up 2.5), onchain at 35.8 (up 0.3) and retail at 28.5 (down 3.3). The overall figure draws on 42 indicators grouped into these ten dimensions.
Source: Cryptohub Macro Cycle Indicator (42 indicators, 10 dimensions). The score measures position between historical cycle extremes (0 = extreme low, 100 = extreme high). It describes where the market sits, not which way it is heading, and it is not a trading signal. Read directly from the Trading God system that powers the Discord and the Markets dashboard, so the figures match everywhere.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded +$2.65B of net inflows in September 2026, with 13 of 21 trading days positive.
| ETF | Net flow ($M) | Positive days | Trading days | Largest day ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 2,648 | 13 | 21 | 999 |
| ETH | 828 | 13 | 21 | 270 |
| XRP | 121 | 12 | 21 | 23 |
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded +$2.65B of net inflows in September 2026, with 13 of 21 trading days positive. The largest single day was $999M on September 21. Bitcoin ETF net assets ended the month at $149.8B, up 1.96% over the month.
Daily Bitcoin flows swung widely, ranging from an outflow of $450.4M to that $999M inflow. Sampled days include inflows of $730.8M on September 3 and $714.7M on September 22, against an outflow of $295.9M on September 16. Spot Ether ETFs took in $828M, with 13 of 21 trading days positive and a largest day of $270M. Ether funds saw an outflow of $224.1M on September 16, the same day as the Bitcoin outflow. Spot XRP ETFs recorded $121M of net inflows, with 12 of 21 trading days positive and a largest day of $23M. Both Bitcoin and Ether funds posted outflows on September 30, of $148.7M and $59.6M.
Source: CoinGlass. Daily net flows of US spot ETFs in millions of USD.
BTC open interest ended September 2026 at $52.69B, down 4.27% over the month. $3.18B of BTC positions were liquidated, mostly shorts (45% long).
BTC open interest ended September 2026 at $52.69B, down 4.27% over the month. It opened September at $53.51B and ranged between $50.91B and $61.56B, with the sampled reading on September 22 at $61.13B. That was the day after the largest liquidation day of the month, when $599M of BTC positions were liquidated on September 21.
Total BTC liquidations came to $3.18B in September. Shorts accounted for $1.75B and longs for $1.42B. Funding for BTC perpetuals averaged 0.0052% on an open-interest-weighted basis, quoted per 8-hour interval, and the daily readings ranged from -0.0003% to 0.0094%. The global long/short ratio ended the month at 1.38, against a monthly average of 1.23.
Source: CoinGlass. Funding is the OI-weighted rate for BTC perpetuals per 8-hour interval (daily readings), in percent as reported by CoinGlass.
BTC held on exchanges fell by 20,676 BTC in September 2026 to 2,485,776 BTC.
BTC held on exchanges fell by 20,676 BTC in September 2026 to 2,485,776 BTC. The balance began the month at 2,503,948 BTC and ranged between 2,477,930 BTC and 2,519,896 BTC. It stood at 2,513,107 BTC on September 20 and 2,479,832 BTC on September 27.
Short-term holder SOPR ended the month at 1.01, against a monthly average of 1.008. Long-term holder SOPR ended at 0.93, against a monthly average of 1.1. NUPL closed the month at 0.358, up 0.044 over the month. Active addresses averaged 634,969 per day. Stablecoin supply ended the month at $306.3B, up $4.2B over the month.
Source: CoinGlass, DefiLlama. SOPR above 1 means coins moved at a profit on average. NUPL above 0 means the network holds unrealized profit on aggregate.
0 of 30 bull market peak indicators had reached their targets as of 2026-10-15. Fear & Greed ended September 2026 at 72 after averaging 68.
| Peak indicator | Value as of 2026-10-15 | Target | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Ahr999 Index | 0.52 | 4 | No |
| Pi Cycle Top Indicator | 81562.50 | 154218 | No |
| Puell Multiple | 1.17 | 2.2 | No |
| Bitcoin Rainbow Chart | 1 | 5 | No |
| Days of ETF Net Outflows | 1 | 10 | No |
| ETF-to-BTC Ratio | 9.2% | 3.5% | No |
| 2-Year MA Multiplier | 81562.50 | 445416 | No |
| MVRV Z-Score | 0.94 | 5 | No |
| Bitcoin Bubble Index | -1.38 | 80 | No |
| USDT Flexible Savings | 4.92% | 29% | No |
| RSI - 22 Day | 49.925 | 80 | No |
| Altcoin Season Index | 62.00 | 75 | No |
| Bitcoin Dominance | 60.08% | 65% | No |
| Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply | 16.40M | 13.5M | No |
| Bitcoin Short Term Holder Supply (%) | 18.42% | 30% | No |
| Bitcoin Reserve Risk | 0.0014 | 0.005 | No |
| Bitcoin Net Unrealized P&L (NUPL) | 33.84% | 70% | No |
| Bitcoin RHODL Ratio | 926 | 10000 | No |
| Bitcoin Macro Oscillator (BMO) | 0.06 | 1.4 | No |
| Bitcoin MVRV Ratio | 1.52 | 3 | No |
| Bitcoin 4-Year Moving Average | 1.26 | 3.5 | No |
| Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI) | 56 | 90 | No |
| Mayer Multiple | 1.14 | 2.2 | No |
| Bitcoin AHR999x Top Escape Indicator | 5.81 | 0.45 | No |
| MicroStrategy's Avg Bitcoin Cost | 75437 | 155655 | No |
| Bitcoin Trend Indicator | 6.14 | 7 | No |
| 3-Month Annualized Ratio | 9.95% | 30% | No |
| Bitcoin Terminal Price | 80943.9 | 187702 | No |
| The Golden Ratio Multiplier | 80943.9 | 135522 | No |
| Smithson's Bitcoin Price Forecast | 80943.9 | 175k-230k | No |
0 of 30 bull market peak indicators had reached their targets as of October 15. Fear & Greed ended September 2026 at 72 after averaging 68, with a low of 51 and a high of 79. The index read 52 on September 16 and 79 on September 22.
Among the month-end readings, the Puell Multiple stood at 1.16 and Bitcoin's price was 0.94x its 2-year moving average, with the 5x line at $443,337. The Pi Cycle gap stood at 55.4% below the top line. The peak board itself is a reading as of October 15. On that date the Ahr999 Index was 0.52 against a target of 4, the MVRV Z-Score was 0.94 against 5, and Bitcoin NUPL was 33.84% against 70%. The Mayer Multiple was 1.14 against 2.2, and the Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index was 56 against 90. Bitcoin Dominance was 60.08% against a target of 65%.
Source: CoinGlass. The peak indicator board is a live reading as of 2026-10-15, not a month-end reading. Long-cycle indicators are shown as context, not as trade setups.
Graded whale wallets tracked by Cryptohub held positions in 7 coins as of 2026-10-15, led by BTC with 10 open positions leaning neutral (40% long).
| Coin | Positions | Long % (by positions) | Net notional ($M) | Lean | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 10 | 40 | -24.8 | neutral | |
| ETH | 9 | 22 | -22.1 | short | |
| ZEC | 7 | 29 | -7.9 | short | |
| HYPE | 7 | 57 | -14.5 | neutral | |
| NEAR | 6 | 17 | -4.1 | short | |
| SOL | 3 | 67 | -2.6 | neutral | |
| VVV | 3 | 67 | 0.6 | neutral |
| Coin | Positions | Long % (by positions) | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 19 | 84 | long |
| BTC | 17 | 65 | neutral |
| SOL | 9 | 89 | long |
| CRCL | 5 | 100 | long |
| XAU | 5 | 60 | neutral |
| UNI | 4 | 100 | long |
Graded whale wallets tracked by Cryptohub held 45 open positions across 7 coins as of October 15, with net notional of -$75.5M across all coins. None of the coins leaned long and 3 leaned short. The positions came from 33 graded Hyperliquid wallets.
BTC led with 10 open positions, 40% long, and net notional of -$24.8M, a neutral lean. ETH had 9 positions, 22% long, with -$22.1M and a short lean. ZEC had 7 positions, 29% long, with -$7.9M and a short lean. HYPE had 7 positions, 57% long, with -$14.5M and a neutral lean. NEAR had 6 positions, 17% long, with -$4.1M and a short lean. SOL and VVV each had 3 positions, 67% long, with net notional of -$2.6M and $0.6M respectively.
OKX lead traders, also as of October 15, held 19 ETH positions that were 84% long and 17 BTC positions that were 65% long, a neutral lean. SOL had 9 positions at 89% long, CRCL 5 positions at 100% long, XAU 5 positions at 60% long and UNI 4 positions at 100% long. The table leans long in four of the six coins listed.
Source: Cryptohub Defi Scanner (Hyperliquid, OKX). Positioning is the state as of 2026-10-15, not a month-end reading from wallets that passed Cryptohub's grading standard (see methodology). Read directly from the Defi Scanner, so it matches the Discord feeds. Long % counts positions; net notional is the dollar value of longs minus shorts.
Total value locked in DeFi stood at $94.67B at the end of September 2026, with $318.11B of DEX volume over the month.
| Chain | TVL at month end ($B) | Change over month % |
|---|---|---|
| Ethereum | 53.28 | 9.25 |
| Solana | 6.53 | 13.18 |
| Base | 6.27 | 14.66 |
| BSC | 5.67 | 3.93 |
| Tron | 5.62 | 8.02 |
| Bitcoin | 4.47 | 9.85 |
| Arbitrum | 1.43 | 3.24 |
| Hyperliquid L1 | 1.19 | -19.14 |
Total value locked in DeFi stood at $94.67B at the end of September 2026, up 10.57% over the month. DEX volume came to $318.11B over the month, and protocol fees totaled $2,538M. Ethereum led the chain table with $53.28B of TVL, up 9.25%.
Most chains posted gains over the month. Solana's TVL was $6.53B, up 13.18%, and Base's was $6.27B, up 14.66%. BSC held $5.67B (up 3.93%), Tron $5.62B (up 8.02%) and the Bitcoin network $4.47B (up 9.85%). Arbitrum held $1.43B, up 3.24%. Hyperliquid L1 was the only chain in the table to decline, with TVL of $1.19B, down 19.14%. Ethereum's TVL began the month at $49.5B and ranged between $48.2B and $54.5B.
Source: DefiLlama. TVL values are month-end readings from DefiLlama history. DEX volume and fees are summed over the calendar month.
The effective Fed funds rate ended September 2026 at 3.88% and the US 10-year yield at 5.29%. 7 key US data releases are scheduled for October 2026.
| Date | Scheduled US release (October 2026) |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Employment Situation |
| 2026-10-14 | Consumer Price Index |
| 2026-10-15 | Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services |
| 2026-10-15 | Producer Price Index |
| 2026-10-28 | FOMC rate decision |
| 2026-10-29 | Gross Domestic Product |
| 2026-10-29 | Personal Income and Outlays |
The effective Fed funds rate ended September 2026 at 3.88%, up 0.25 from the previous month. The US 10-year yield ended at 5.29%, up 0.54, and the US 2-year yield at 4.88%, also up 0.54. The broad dollar index closed the month at 121, up 2.4. Seven key US data releases are scheduled for October 2026.
Gold returned -5.27% over the month. The S&P 500 (SPY) returned -0.58%, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) returned 3.21%. Bitcoin's 6.48% gain came in a month when equity and commodity returns were mixed.
Source: FRED, Twelve Data. Rates and yields from FRED. Release dates are as scheduled by the publishing agencies and can change.
The October calendar opens with the Employment Situation report on October 2. The Consumer Price Index follows on October 14. On October 15, Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services and the Producer Price Index are both scheduled. The FOMC rate decision is scheduled for October 28, and Gross Domestic Product and Personal Income and Outlays are both scheduled for October 29. Cryptohub will publish the next Macro Cycle Score, ETF flow, derivatives, on-chain and DeFi readings in the October report.
Cryptohub's Macro Cycle Score ended September 2026 at 47/100, placing the market in the Lower Mid-Range between historical cycle extremes, while Bitcoin closed the month at $83,649.
Bitcoin gained 6.48% in September 2026, closing at $83,649.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded +$2.65B of net inflows in September 2026, with 13 of 21 trading days positive.
The Cryptohub Macro Cycle Score ended September 2026 at 47/100 (Lower Mid-Range), up 3 points from the end of the previous month. The score describes where the market sits between historical cycle extremes, not which way it is heading.
$3.18B of BTC positions were liquidated, mostly shorts (45% long).
BTC held on exchanges fell by 20,676 BTC in September 2026 to 2,485,776 BTC.
Total value locked in DeFi stood at $94.67B at the end of September 2026, with $318.11B of DEX volume over the month.
The effective Fed funds rate ended September 2026 at 3.88% and the US 10-year yield at 5.29%. 7 key US data releases are scheduled for October 2026.
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Data notice: figures in this report come from third-party providers (CoinGlass, CoinGecko, DefiLlama, FRED, Twelve Data, SolanaTracker) and Cryptohub's own tracking systems. They are shown as reported at the time of collection and may be delayed, revised or reported incorrectly by the source. Cryptohub checks the data but cannot guarantee that it is complete or accurate. This report is educational market commentary, not financial advice. Do your own research before making any decision, and never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Cryptohub (2026). Crypto Market Report September 2026: Bitcoin Gains 6.48% as ETFs Add $2.65B. https://cryptohub.gg/reports/crypto-market-report-september-2026. Methodology: https://cryptohub.gg/reports/methodology. Data as JSON: https://cryptohub.gg/api/reports?action=get&slug=crypto-market-report-september-2026.