{"report":{"slug":"crypto-market-report-october-2026","month":"2026-10","kind":"monthly","periodName":"October 2026","periodStart":"2026-10-01","periodEnd":"2026-10-31","status":"published","title":"Crypto Market Report October 2026: Bitcoin Falls 7.41% as ETH Drops 16.12%","seoTitle":"Crypto Market Report October 2026: Bitcoin Slides 7.41%","metaDescription":"October 2026 crypto report: Bitcoin fell 7.41% to $77,447 and ETH lost 16.12%. See ETF flows, derivatives, whale data and the cycle score at 33/100.","faq":[{"q":"How did Bitcoin perform in October 2026?","a":"Bitcoin lost 7.41% in October 2026, closing at $77,447, with total crypto market cap at $2.63T at month end."},{"q":"How much did US spot Bitcoin ETFs take in during October 2026?","a":"US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded -$516M of net outflows in October 2026, with 13 of 22 trading days positive."},{"q":"What was the Cryptohub Macro Cycle Score at the end of October 2026?","a":"The Cryptohub Macro Cycle Score ended October 2026 at 33/100 (Lower Mid-Range), down 14 points from the end of the previous month. The score describes where the market sits between historical cycle extremes, not which way it is heading."},{"q":"How much Bitcoin was liquidated in October 2026?","a":"$3.06B of BTC positions were liquidated, mostly longs (69% long)."},{"q":"What happened to Bitcoin exchange balances in October 2026?","a":"BTC held on exchanges rose by 15,003 BTC in October 2026 to 2,500,779 BTC."},{"q":"How much value was locked in DeFi at the end of October 2026?","a":"Total value locked in DeFi stood at $84.89B at the end of October 2026, with $258.14B of DEX volume over the month."},{"q":"Where were US rates and yields at the end of October 2026?","a":"The effective Fed funds rate ended October 2026 at 3.88% and the US 10-year yield at 4.98%. 8 key US data releases and rate decisions are scheduled for November 2026."}],"summary":["Bitcoin fell 7.41% in October to $77,447, while Ether lost 16.12% and Solana lost 19.24%.","The Cryptohub Macro Cycle Score ended the month at 33/100 (Lower Mid-Range), 14 points below the end of September.","US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $516M of net outflows and spot Ether ETFs recorded $1,607M of net outflows.","BTC liquidations totaled $3.06B, of which $2.11B were longs.","Fear & Greed ended October at 31 after averaging 58, and 0 of 30 bull market peak indicators had reached their targets."],"intro":"October 2026 was a month of broad declines across crypto, with the sharpest losses in altcoins. Bitcoin posted its highest daily close of the month, $86,417.75, on October 4, then moved lower through most of the remaining weeks and finished at $77,446.62. Ether and Solana fell further in percentage terms. Fear & Greed dropped from 73 on October 1 to 31 on October 31, and both US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs recorded net outflows.\n\nThe headline numbers: Bitcoin returned -7.41%, Ether -16.12% and Solana -19.24%, with total crypto market cap at $2.63T and BTC dominance at 59.2% at month end. The Cryptohub Macro Cycle Score stood at 33/100. BTC derivatives saw $3.06B of liquidations, and DeFi total value locked fell 10.87% to $84.89B. The sections below take each of these in turn, from price action and ETF flows to whale activity and the macro calendar.","sections":[{"id":"market-overview","title":"Bitcoin and crypto market performance in October 2026","chart":"line-pct","headline":"Bitcoin lost 7.41% in October 2026, closing at $77,447, with total crypto market cap at $2.63T at month end.","metrics":[{"label":"Total crypto market cap (month end)","value":2.63,"unit":"$T","change":null,"changeLabel":null},{"label":"BTC dominance (month end)","value":59.2,"unit":"%","change":null,"changeLabel":null},{"label":"ETH dominance (month end)","value":10.5,"unit":"%"},{"label":"BTC return (October 2026)","value":-7.41,"unit":"%"},{"label":"ETH return (October 2026)","value":-16.12,"unit":"%"},{"label":"SOL return (October 2026)","value":-19.24,"unit":"%"},{"label":"Altcoin Season Index (month end)","value":62,"unit":"/100"}],"series":[{"label":"BTC","points":[["2026-10-01",84688.47],["2026-10-02",84543.44],["2026-10-03",84765.63],["2026-10-04",86417.75],["2026-10-05",85916.96],["2026-10-06",85528.21],["2026-10-07",83194.95],["2026-10-08",81848.89],["2026-10-09",82563.29],["2026-10-10",83019.84],["2026-10-11",83574.57],["2026-10-12",82134.49],["2026-10-13",83458.77],["2026-10-14",81578.94],["2026-10-15",82376.32],["2026-10-16",81701.86],["2026-10-17",81283.79],["2026-10-18",81702.45],["2026-10-19",81983.94],["2026-10-20",83028.69],["2026-10-21",84408.33],["2026-10-22",81255.4],["2026-10-23",80726.44],["2026-10-24",80525.44],["2026-10-25",80388.22],["2026-10-26",79876.22],["2026-10-27",80809.64],["2026-10-28",81184.45],["2026-10-29",78880.16],["2026-10-30",76861.9],["2026-10-31",77446.62]]},{"label":"ETH","points":[["2026-10-01",2701.54],["2026-10-02",2667.58],["2026-10-03",2686.33],["2026-10-04",2730.13],["2026-10-05",2715.52],["2026-10-06",2696.49],["2026-10-07",2568.87],["2026-10-08",2475.15],["2026-10-09",2487.13],["2026-10-10",2507.42],["2026-10-11",2531.7],["2026-10-12",2468.52],["2026-10-13",2509.07],["2026-10-14",2416.87],["2026-10-15",2453.58],["2026-10-16",2422.81],["2026-10-17",2391.44],["2026-10-18",2393.63],["2026-10-19",2404.85],["2026-10-20",2453.68],["2026-10-21",2482.74],["2026-10-22",2382.15],["2026-10-23",2362.58],["2026-10-24",2343.82],["2026-10-25",2339.92],["2026-10-26",2310.22],["2026-10-27",2347.54],["2026-10-28",2357.24],["2026-10-29",2270.68],["2026-10-30",2233.57],["2026-10-31",2253.01]]},{"label":"SOL","points":[["2026-10-01",118.2],["2026-10-02",118.51],["2026-10-03",119.71],["2026-10-04",121.67],["2026-10-05",121],["2026-10-06",120.84],["2026-10-07",115.95],["2026-10-08",110.3],["2026-10-09",109.13],["2026-10-10",110.39],["2026-10-11",110.98],["2026-10-12",106.36],["2026-10-13",106.91],["2026-10-14",104.47],["2026-10-15",105.71],["2026-10-16",104.32],["2026-10-17",102.96],["2026-10-18",103.78],["2026-10-19",105.1],["2026-10-20",106.79],["2026-10-21",107.39],["2026-10-22",103.23],["2026-10-23",102.18],["2026-10-24",101.52],["2026-10-25",101.5],["2026-10-26",100.2],["2026-10-27",101.17],["2026-10-28",102.38],["2026-10-29",96.88],["2026-10-30",95.78],["2026-10-31",95.4]]}],"table":{"columns":["Asset","Open","Close","High","Low","Return %"],"rows":[["BTC",83648.98,77446.62,86789.89,76360.18,-7.41],["ETH",2686,2253.01,2754.29,2191.63,-16.12],["SOL",118.13,95.4,123.37,93.78,-19.24]]},"notes":["Daily closes at 00:00 UTC. Monthly open is the last close of the previous month. Market cap and dominance are from the daily snapshot taken at 23:50 UTC on the last day of the month."],"sources":["CoinGecko","CoinGlass"],"confidence":"high","prose":"Bitcoin lost **7.41%** in October 2026, closing the month at $77,447 after opening it at $83,648.98, while total crypto market cap stood at $2.63T. BTC traded between a low of $76,360.18 and a high of $86,789.89 during the month, and its highest daily close of the month was $86,417.75 on October 4. It stood at $81,184.45 on October 28 before slipping to the month-end close.\n\nEther and Solana fell harder than Bitcoin. Ether returned -16.12%, closing at $2,253.01, and Solana returned -19.24%, closing at $95.40. BTC dominance was 59.2% at month end and ETH dominance was 10.5%, while the Altcoin Season Index read 62/100. Both Ether and Solana also posted their highest daily closes of the month on October 4 and finished October well below those levels."},{"id":"macro-cycle","title":"Cryptohub Macro Cycle Score for October 2026","chart":"line","headline":"The Cryptohub Macro Cycle Score ended October 2026 at 33/100 (Lower Mid-Range), down 14 points from the end of the previous month.","metrics":[{"label":"Score at month end","value":33,"unit":"/100","change":-14,"changeLabel":"vs previous month end"},{"label":"Month average","value":40,"unit":"/100"},{"label":"Month high","value":48,"unit":"/100","changeLabel":"October 22, 2026"},{"label":"Month low","value":33,"unit":"/100","changeLabel":"October 31, 2026"},{"label":"BTC at month end (score date)","value":77197,"unit":"$"}],"series":[{"label":"Cycle score","points":[["2026-10-01",47],["2026-10-02",46],["2026-10-03",44],["2026-10-04",44],["2026-10-05",46],["2026-10-06",44],["2026-10-07",43],["2026-10-08",38],["2026-10-09",37],["2026-10-10",37],["2026-10-11",37],["2026-10-12",38],["2026-10-13",35],["2026-10-14",36],["2026-10-15",34],["2026-10-16",36],["2026-10-17",35],["2026-10-18",35],["2026-10-19",36],["2026-10-20",43],["2026-10-21",44],["2026-10-22",48],["2026-10-23",39],["2026-10-24",40],["2026-10-25",41],["2026-10-26",40],["2026-10-27",42],["2026-10-28",42],["2026-10-29",41],["2026-10-30",39],["2026-10-31",33]]}],"table":{"columns":["Dimension","Score (month end)","Change over month"],"rows":[["institutional",0,-100],["sentiment",44.3,-28.8],["rotation",39.1,-9.3],["leverage",49.5,7.7],["cycle",26.7,-5],["crossmarket",51,4.8],["onchain",31.6,-4.2],["retail",26,-3.5],["structure",18.4,-2.8],["mining",47.3,1.3]]},"extra":{"title":"Biggest indicator moves","columns":["Indicator","Dimension","Score","Change","Raw"],"rows":[]},"notes":["The score measures position between historical cycle extremes (0 = extreme low, 100 = extreme high). It describes where the market sits, not which way it is heading, and it is not a trading signal.","Read directly from the Trading God system that powers the Discord and the Markets dashboard, so the figures match everywhere."],"sources":["Cryptohub Macro Cycle Indicator (42 indicators, 10 dimensions)"],"confidence":"high","prose":"The Cryptohub Macro Cycle Score ended October 2026 at **33/100**, in the Lower Mid-Range band and 14 points below its reading at the end of September. The month average was 40/100. The score was 47 on October 1, stood at 36 on both October 16 and October 19, reached its month high of 48 on October 22 and its month low of 33 on October 31, when BTC was at $77,197 on the score date.\n\nAmong the ten dimensions, institutional scored 0 at month end, a change of -100 points over the month, and sentiment scored 44.3, down 28.8 points. Rotation was 39.1 (down 9.3), cycle 26.7 (down 5), onchain 31.6 (down 4.2), retail 26 (down 3.5) and structure 18.4 (down 2.8). Leverage, at 49.5, was up 7.7 points, crossmarket, at 51, was up 4.8, and mining, at 47.3, was up 1.3. Leverage, crossmarket and mining were the only dimensions that scored higher than a month earlier."},{"id":"etf-flows","title":"Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETF flows in October 2026","chart":"bar","headline":"US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded -$516M of net outflows in October 2026, with 13 of 22 trading days positive.","metrics":[{"label":"BTC spot ETF net flow","value":-516,"unit":"$M"},{"label":"ETH spot ETF net flow","value":-1607,"unit":"$M"},{"label":"SOL spot ETF net flow","value":-113,"unit":"$M"},{"label":"XRP spot ETF net flow","value":19,"unit":"$M"},{"label":"Largest single day (BTC)","value":-643,"unit":"$M","changeLabel":"October 30, 2026"},{"label":"BTC ETF net assets (month end)","value":149.3,"unit":"$B","change":-0.41,"changeLabel":"% over month"}],"table":{"columns":["ETF","Net flow ($M)","Positive days","Trading days","Largest day ($M)"],"rows":[["BTC",-516,13,22,-643],["ETH",-1607,3,22,-202],["SOL",-113,1,13,-28],["XRP",19,7,22,8]]},"series":[{"label":"BTC daily net flow ($M)","points":[["2026-10-01",102.7],["2026-10-02",189.9],["2026-10-05",-89.8],["2026-10-06",118.8],["2026-10-07",-484.9],["2026-10-08",-244.1],["2026-10-09",21.1],["2026-10-12",-65.4],["2026-10-13",175.7],["2026-10-14",-261.4],["2026-10-15",5.1],["2026-10-16",-82.4],["2026-10-19",526.7],["2026-10-20",23.2],["2026-10-21",524.8],["2026-10-22",-635.6],["2026-10-23",-137.9],["2026-10-26",110.3],["2026-10-27",176],["2026-10-28",137.3],["2026-10-29",17.2],["2026-10-30",-643.2]]},{"label":"ETH daily net flow ($M)","points":[["2026-10-01",-55.4],["2026-10-02",-37.4],["2026-10-05",-50.8],["2026-10-06",-201.9],["2026-10-07",-160.9],["2026-10-08",-72.5],["2026-10-09",-56.1],["2026-10-12",-85.4],["2026-10-13",24.8],["2026-10-14",-129.5],["2026-10-15",-60.3],["2026-10-16",-69.7],["2026-10-19",-103.3],["2026-10-20",-26.1],["2026-10-21",14.9],["2026-10-22",-110.6],["2026-10-23",4.4],["2026-10-26",-88.6],["2026-10-27",-60.2],["2026-10-28",-21.4],["2026-10-29",-105.5],["2026-10-30",-155.7]]}],"notes":["Daily net flows of US spot ETFs in millions of USD."],"sources":["CoinGlass"],"confidence":"high","prose":"US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded **-$516M** of net outflows in October 2026, with 13 of 22 trading days positive. Spot Ether ETFs saw net outflows of $1,607M, with only 3 of 22 trading days positive. Spot Solana ETFs recorded net outflows of $113M, with 1 positive day out of 13 trading days, while spot XRP ETFs took in $19M, with 7 positive days out of 22.\n\nThe largest single BTC day was October 30, at -$643M. Earlier in the month, daily net flow peaked at $526.7M on October 19 and reached $524.8M on October 21, while October 7 saw outflows of $484.9M. On the Ether side, the largest single day was -$202M, and on October 30 ETH ETFs recorded -$155.7M. BTC ETF net assets stood at $149.3B at month end, down 0.41% over the month."},{"id":"derivatives","title":"Bitcoin open interest, funding and liquidations in October 2026","chart":"line","headline":"BTC open interest ended October 2026 at $52.91B, up 0.42% over the month. $3.06B of BTC positions were liquidated, mostly longs (69% long).","metrics":[{"label":"BTC open interest (month end)","value":52.9,"unit":"$B","change":0.42,"changeLabel":"% over month"},{"label":"Avg funding (OI-weighted, per 8h)","value":0.0056,"unit":"%"},{"label":"Funding range","value":"-0.0002 to 0.0107","unit":"%"},{"label":"BTC liquidations (month)","value":3.06,"unit":"$B"},{"label":"Longs liquidated","value":2.11,"unit":"$B"},{"label":"Shorts liquidated","value":0.95,"unit":"$B"},{"label":"Largest liquidation day","value":347,"unit":"$M","changeLabel":"October 29, 2026"},{"label":"Global long/short ratio (month end)","value":2.84,"unit":"","changeLabel":"avg 1.66"}],"series":[{"label":"BTC aggregated OI ($B)","points":[["2026-10-01",54.09],["2026-10-02",54.5],["2026-10-03",53.38],["2026-10-04",55.26],["2026-10-05",54.97],["2026-10-06",55.67],["2026-10-07",54.34],["2026-10-08",52.5],["2026-10-09",51.8],["2026-10-10",51.45],["2026-10-11",51.88],["2026-10-12",51.28],["2026-10-13",52.28],["2026-10-14",52.79],["2026-10-15",52.69],["2026-10-16",52.52],["2026-10-17",52.09],["2026-10-18",52.27],["2026-10-19",52.75],["2026-10-20",53.56],["2026-10-21",55.95],["2026-10-22",54.17],["2026-10-23",53.58],["2026-10-24",54.11],["2026-10-25",53.19],["2026-10-26",54.22],["2026-10-27",54.64],["2026-10-28",54.13],["2026-10-29",53.45],["2026-10-30",53.69],["2026-10-31",52.91]]}],"extraSeries":[{"label":"Daily BTC liquidations ($M)","points":[["2026-10-01",36.7],["2026-10-02",202],["2026-10-03",3.6],["2026-10-04",51],["2026-10-05",68],["2026-10-06",26.3],["2026-10-07",180.6],["2026-10-08",298.2],["2026-10-09",58.9],["2026-10-10",3.4],["2026-10-11",39.5],["2026-10-12",107.2],["2026-10-13",106],["2026-10-14",75.9],["2026-10-15",208.9],["2026-10-16",81],["2026-10-17",20.7],["2026-10-18",64.1],["2026-10-19",32.1],["2026-10-20",77.7],["2026-10-21",84.8],["2026-10-22",135.8],["2026-10-23",88.8],["2026-10-24",174],["2026-10-25",18.3],["2026-10-26",47.6],["2026-10-27",32.6],["2026-10-28",56.6],["2026-10-29",347.5],["2026-10-30",324.8],["2026-10-31",7.7]]}],"table":null,"notes":["Funding is the OI-weighted rate for BTC perpetuals per 8-hour interval (daily readings), in percent as reported by CoinGlass."],"sources":["CoinGlass"],"confidence":"high","prose":"BTC open interest ended October 2026 at **$52.91B**, up 0.42% over the month, while $3.06B of BTC positions were liquidated, 69% of them longs. Long liquidations totaled $2.11B and short liquidations $0.95B. The largest liquidation day was October 29, at $347M.\n\nOpen interest ranged between $51.28B and $55.95B during the month. It stood at $55.26B on October 4 and at $51.45B on October 10, then at $54.13B on October 28. Funding on BTC perpetuals averaged 0.0056% on an open interest weighted basis, quoted per 8-hour interval, within a range of -0.0002% to 0.0107%. The global long/short ratio was 2.84 at month end, against a monthly average of 1.66."},{"id":"on-chain","title":"Bitcoin on-chain data: exchange balances, SOPR and NUPL","chart":"line","headline":"BTC held on exchanges rose by 15,003 BTC in October 2026 to 2,500,779 BTC.","metrics":[{"label":"BTC on exchanges (month end)","value":2500779,"unit":"BTC","change":15003,"changeLabel":"BTC over month"},{"label":"STH SOPR (month end)","value":0.999,"unit":"","changeLabel":"avg 1.006"},{"label":"LTH SOPR (month end)","value":1.18,"unit":"","changeLabel":"avg 1.18"},{"label":"NUPL (month end)","value":0.302,"unit":"","change":-0.065,"changeLabel":"over month"},{"label":"Active addresses (daily avg)","value":640837,"unit":""},{"label":"Stablecoin supply (month end)","value":299,"unit":"$B","change":-7.4,"changeLabel":"$B over month"}],"series":[{"label":"BTC exchange balance","points":[["2026-10-01",2476986],["2026-10-02",2474458],["2026-10-03",2474791],["2026-10-04",2473289],["2026-10-05",2471720],["2026-10-06",2471843],["2026-10-08",2455365],["2026-10-09",2458262],["2026-10-09",2458262],["2026-10-12",2466867],["2026-10-13",2467673],["2026-10-14",2469333],["2026-10-16",2473294],["2026-10-17",2473781],["2026-10-18",2474745],["2026-10-19",2475686],["2026-10-20",2485562],["2026-10-20",2486091],["2026-10-21",2490353],["2026-10-22",2489573],["2026-10-22",2489399],["2026-10-23",2521664],["2026-10-24",2528694],["2026-10-25",2528865],["2026-10-26",2529795],["2026-10-27",2536470],["2026-10-28",2523204],["2026-10-29",2526328],["2026-10-29",2526560],["2026-10-30",2502006],["2026-10-31",2500779]]}],"table":null,"notes":["SOPR above 1 means coins moved at a profit on average. NUPL above 0 means the network holds unrealized profit on aggregate."],"sources":["CoinGlass","DefiLlama"],"confidence":"high","prose":"BTC held on exchanges rose by **15,003 BTC** in October 2026 to 2,500,779 BTC. The balance was 2,476,986 BTC on October 1 and fell to 2,455,365 BTC on October 8. It then rose in every reading through October 26, when it reached 2,529,795 BTC, before easing to the month-end level.\n\nShort-term holder SOPR ended the month at 0.999 after averaging 1.006, while long-term holder SOPR was 1.18, in line with its monthly average of 1.18. NUPL ended at 0.302, down 0.065 over the month. Active addresses averaged 640,837 a day. Stablecoin supply stood at $299B at month end, down $7.4B over the month."},{"id":"cycle-indicators","title":"Bull market peak indicators and Fear & Greed","chart":"line","headline":"0 of 30 bull market peak indicators had reached their targets at the end of October 2026. Fear & Greed ended October 2026 at 31 after averaging 58.","metrics":[{"label":"Bull market peak indicators hit","value":"0 of 30","unit":"","changeLabel":"at month end"},{"label":"Fear & Greed (month end)","value":31,"unit":"/100","changeLabel":"avg 58, low 29, high 74"},{"label":"Puell Multiple (month end)","value":1.01,"unit":""},{"label":"BTC price vs 2-year MA (month end)","value":"0.87x","unit":"","changeLabel":"5x line at $446,852"},{"label":"Pi Cycle gap (110DMA vs 2x350DMA)","value":50.5,"unit":"%","changeLabel":"below the top line"},{"label":"Rainbow chart position","value":"0 of 10 bands below price","unit":"","changeLabel":"lower bands"}],"series":[{"label":"Fear & Greed","points":[["2026-10-01",73],["2026-10-02",71],["2026-10-03",68],["2026-10-04",64],["2026-10-05",71],["2026-10-06",74],["2026-10-07",70],["2026-10-08",63],["2026-10-09",58],["2026-10-10",63],["2026-10-11",60],["2026-10-12",68],["2026-10-13",56],["2026-10-14",63],["2026-10-15",52],["2026-10-16",64],["2026-10-17",54],["2026-10-18",54],["2026-10-19",60],["2026-10-20",56],["2026-10-21",64],["2026-10-22",67],["2026-10-23",51],["2026-10-24",52],["2026-10-25",53],["2026-10-26",51],["2026-10-27",47],["2026-10-28",50],["2026-10-29",50],["2026-10-30",29],["2026-10-31",31]]}],"table":{"columns":["Peak indicator","Value at month end","Target","Status"],"rows":[["Bitcoin Ahr999 Index","0.46","4","No"],["Pi Cycle Top Indicator","77198.21","152099","No"],["Puell Multiple","1.01","2.2","No"],["Bitcoin Rainbow Chart","1","5","No"],["Days of ETF Net Outflows","1","10","No"],["ETF-to-BTC Ratio","9.6%","3.5%","No"],["2-Year MA Multiplier","77198.21","446802","No"],["MVRV Z-Score","0.77","5","No"],["Bitcoin Bubble Index","-5.74","80","No"],["USDT Flexible Savings","5.42%","29%","No"],["RSI - 22 Day ","41.623","80","No"],["Altcoin Season Index","62.00","75","No"],["Bitcoin Dominance","59.86%","65%","No"],["Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply","16.30M","13.5M","No"],["Bitcoin Short Term Holder Supply (%)","18.94%","30%","No"],["Bitcoin Reserve Risk","0.0013","0.005","No"],["Bitcoin Net Unrealized P&L (NUPL)","29.98%","70%","No"],["Bitcoin RHODL Ratio","923","10000","No"],["Bitcoin Macro Oscillator (BMO)","0.06","1.4","No"],["Bitcoin MVRV Ratio","1.43","3","No"],["Bitcoin 4-Year Moving Average","1.18","3.5","No"],["Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI)","54","90","No"],["Mayer Multiple","1.06","2.2","No"],["Bitcoin AHR999x Top Escape Indicator","6.66","0.45","No"],["MicroStrategy's Avg Bitcoin Cost","75446","155655","No"],["Bitcoin Trend Indicator","6.14","7","No"],["3-Month Annualized Ratio","9.95%","30%","No"],["Bitcoin Terminal Price","77480","187702","No"],["The Golden Ratio Multiplier","77480","135522","No"],["Smithson's Bitcoin Price Forecast","77480","175k-230k","No"]]},"notes":["Long-cycle indicators are shown as context, not as trade setups."],"asOf":null,"sources":["CoinGlass"],"confidence":"medium","prose":"**0 of 30** bull market peak indicators had reached their targets at the end of October 2026, and Fear & Greed ended the month at 31 after averaging 58. The index stood at 73 on October 1, ranged between a low of 29 and a high of 74 over the month, and read 50 on October 28 before the month-end reading.\n\nAmong the long-cycle indicators, the Puell Multiple was 1.01 against a target of 2.2, the MVRV Z-Score was 0.77 against a target of 5, and NUPL was 29.98% against a target of 70%. The Mayer Multiple was 1.06 against a target of 2.2, and the Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index was 54 against a target of 90. BTC traded at 0.87x its 2-year moving average, with the 5x line at $446,852, and the Pi Cycle gap stood at 50.5% below the top line."},{"id":"whale-positioning","title":"Whale positioning on Hyperliquid and OKX","chart":null,"headline":"Graded whale wallets tracked by Cryptohub held positions in 40 coins at the end of October 2026, led by BTC with 9 open positions leaning short (22% long).","metrics":[{"label":"Coins with graded-wallet positions","value":40,"unit":""},{"label":"Open positions tracked","value":149,"unit":""},{"label":"Net notional (all coins)","value":-34.6,"unit":"$M"},{"label":"Coins leaning long / short","value":"0 / 35","unit":""},{"label":"Graded Hyperliquid wallets","value":23,"unit":""}],"series":[],"asOf":null,"table":{"columns":["Coin","Positions","Long % (by positions)","Net notional ($M)","Lean","Long % chg since October 15, 2026"],"rows":[["BTC",9,22,-13.5,"short",-20],["HYPE",7,57,12.3,"neutral",7],["ZEC",7,0,-6.9,"short",-43],["ENA",6,33,0,"neutral",""],["NEAR",5,0,-1.4,"short",-25],["STRK",5,0,-0.5,"short",""],["ETH",5,20,-2.6,"short",-13],["ARB",4,0,-0.3,"short",""],["KPEPE",4,0,-1.2,"short",""],["ONDO",4,0,-0.5,"short",""],["XPL",4,25,1.4,"short",""],["USELESS",4,0,-0.1,"short",""]]},"extra":{"title":"OKX lead traders","columns":["Coin","Positions","Long % (by positions)","Lean"],"rows":[["ETH",18,83,"long"],["BTC",10,70,"long"],["CRCL",9,100,"long"],["SOL",6,67,"neutral"],["HYPE",5,40,"neutral"],["XAU",4,75,"long"]]},"notes":["Positioning is the state at the end of October 2026 (daily snapshot, 23:50 UTC) from wallets that passed Cryptohub's grading standard (see methodology). Read directly from the Defi Scanner, so it matches the Discord feeds.","Long % counts positions; net notional is the dollar value of longs minus shorts."],"sources":["Cryptohub Defi Scanner (Hyperliquid, OKX)"],"confidence":"high","prose":"Graded whale wallets tracked by Cryptohub held 149 open positions across 40 coins at the end of October 2026, with net notional of **-$34.6M**. None of the coins leaned long and 35 leaned short. BTC had the most positions, 9, with 22% long and net notional of -$13.5M, and its long share was 20 points lower than on October 15.\n\nHYPE had 7 positions, 57% long, with net notional of $12.3M, and was classed neutral. ZEC also had 7 positions, none of them long, with net notional of -$6.9M, and its long share was down 43 points since October 15. ETH had 5 positions, 20% long, with net notional of -$2.6M. Graded Hyperliquid wallets numbered 23. On OKX, lead traders held 18 ETH positions, 83% long, 10 BTC positions, 70% long, and 9 CRCL positions, all long. The OKX lead traders lean the opposite way from the graded Hyperliquid wallets on both BTC and ETH."},{"id":"whale-activity","title":"Whale trade alerts in October 2026","chart":"bar","headline":"Cryptohub's graded whale wallets triggered 9,064 trade alerts across 17 of the 31 days of October 2026 with daily snapshots, $0.54B in notional.","metrics":[{"label":"Whale trade alerts","value":9064,"unit":"","changeLabel":"17 of 31 days"},{"label":"Total notional","value":544,"unit":"$M"},{"label":"Alerts: solana-memes","value":6009,"unit":""},{"label":"Alerts: okx","value":1395,"unit":""},{"label":"Alerts: hyperliquid","value":908,"unit":""},{"label":"Alerts: solana-majors","value":752,"unit":""}],"series":[{"label":"Whale alerts per day","points":[["2026-10-15",720],["2026-10-16",534],["2026-10-17",352],["2026-10-18",352],["2026-10-19",560],["2026-10-20",640],["2026-10-21",679],["2026-10-22",633],["2026-10-23",450],["2026-10-24",346],["2026-10-25",386],["2026-10-26",629],["2026-10-27",535],["2026-10-28",639],["2026-10-29",760],["2026-10-30",597],["2026-10-31",252]]}],"table":{"columns":["Coin (excl. memecoins)","Alerts","Buys/longs","Sells/shorts","Notional ($M)"],"rows":[["SOL",592,580,12,10.1],["BTC",459,230,229,153.9],["ETH",451,244,207,104.5],["XAU",202,111,91,9.4],["ZEC",179,152,27,25.7],["HYPE",151,94,57,58.8],["SKHX",89,28,61,13.5],["MSTR",77,73,4,7.6],["SOXL",64,64,0,4.1],["NEAR",56,32,24,9.2]]},"extra":{"title":"Largest single trades","columns":["Date","Asset","Side","Notional ($M)","Venue"],"rows":[["2026-10-15","ETH","long",22.62,"hyperliquid"],["2026-10-20","BTC","short",20.72,"hyperliquid"],["2026-10-20","BTC","short",12.43,"hyperliquid"],["2026-10-19","BTC","short",10.68,"hyperliquid"],["2026-10-15","ETH","long",10.32,"hyperliquid"]]},"notes":["Counts are summed from daily snapshots taken at 23:50 UTC (17 of 31 days covered). Memecoin alerts are counted in the totals but left out of the coin table and the largest trades."],"sources":["Cryptohub Defi Scanner"],"confidence":"medium","prose":"Cryptohub's graded whale wallets triggered **9,064** trade alerts across 17 of the 31 days of October 2026 with daily snapshots, representing $544M in notional. The Solana memecoin channel produced 6,009 of those alerts, followed by 1,395 on OKX, 908 on Hyperliquid and 752 from Solana majors.\n\nExcluding memecoins, SOL drew 592 alerts, 580 of them buys, while BTC drew 459 alerts, split between 230 buys or longs and 229 sells or shorts, with $153.9M in notional. ETH had 451 alerts and $104.5M in notional, XAU had 202 alerts, and ZEC had 179 alerts, 152 of them buys or longs. The largest single trade was a $22.62M ETH long on Hyperliquid on October 15. Three of the next four were BTC shorts on Hyperliquid, of $20.72M and $12.43M on October 20 and $10.68M on October 19. Daily alert counts peaked at 760 on October 29 and stood at 252 on October 31."},{"id":"solana-memecoins","title":"Solana and memecoin activity in October 2026","chart":null,"headline":"Solana memecoin venues handled $38.24B of volume across 1,556,894 new tokens in the days tracked, with 49,317 graduations. The average graded Solana wallet held 32% in cash and 33% in SOL at the end of October 2026, cash down 9 points since undefined.","metrics":[{"label":"Memecoin volume (17 days)","value":38241,"unit":"$M"},{"label":"Tokens launched","value":1556894,"unit":""},{"label":"Graduations","value":49317,"unit":""},{"label":"Graded Solana wallets","value":817,"unit":""},{"label":"Average graded wallet in cash","value":32.3,"unit":"%","change":-8.9,"changeLabel":"pts since undefined"},{"label":"Average graded wallet in SOL","value":33.1,"unit":"%","change":1.5,"changeLabel":"pts since undefined"},{"label":"Visible holdings, graded Solana wallets","value":3.88,"unit":"$M","change":-54.66,"changeLabel":"% since undefined"}],"series":[],"table":{"columns":["Holding","Average wallet % (undefined)","Average wallet % (October 31, 2026)","Change (pts)","Holdings ($M, October 31, 2026)"],"rows":[["Cash (stablecoins and dollar tokens)",41.2,32.3,-8.9,1.49],["SOL (incl. staked)",31.6,33.1,1.5,1.16],["Listed coins",8.1,5.2,-2.9,0.49],["Memecoins and other",19.1,29.3,10.2,0.74]]},"extra":{"title":"Launchpad activity","columns":["Venue","Volume ($M)","Tokens launched","Graduations","Days"],"rows":[["all",38240.6,1556894,49317,17],["pumpfun-amm",17998,50125,0,17],["meteora-all",8074.5,150244,32116,17],["meteora-dyn-v2",5974.6,53233,0,17],["raydium-all",4199.2,24108,365,17],["pumpfun",3811.8,1332261,16835,17],["raydium-clmm",3609.1,565,0,17],["orca",3338.8,162,0,17]]},"asOf":null,"notes":["Launchpad totals are summed from 17 daily snapshots (partial month).","Cash vs SOL covers 52 graded Solana wallets: each wallet's own split, averaged. Cash counts every stablecoin and dollar token, including vault and lending versions (Jupiter Lend included). Deposits on Kamino, MarginFi or Drift and exchange balances are not visible, so a fall in visible holdings can mean money moved out of view.","Visible holdings fell 55% over the period; part may have moved to platforms the scanner cannot see."],"sources":["Cryptohub Defi Scanner","SolanaTracker","Jupiter Lend"],"confidence":"medium","prose":"Solana memecoin venues handled **$38.24B** of volume across 1,556,894 new tokens in the days tracked, with 49,317 graduations. The totals cover 17 days of snapshots. By venue, pumpfun-amm recorded $17,998M of volume and meteora-all $8,074.5M, and meteora-all also recorded 32,116 graduations. The pumpfun venue accounted for 1,332,261 tokens launched and 16,835 graduations.\n\nThe average graded Solana wallet held 32.3% in cash and 33.1% in SOL at the end of October 2026. The cash share was down 8.9 points from 41.2% in the earlier reading, while the SOL share was up 1.5 points from 31.6%. The memecoins and other bucket stood at 29.3%, up 10.2 points from 19.1%, and listed coins stood at 5.2%. Visible holdings of graded Solana wallets were $3.88M, down 54.66%."},{"id":"defi","title":"DeFi TVL, DEX volume and fees in October 2026","chart":"line","headline":"Total value locked in DeFi stood at $84.89B at the end of October 2026, with $258.14B of DEX volume over the month.","metrics":[{"label":"Total DeFi TVL (month end)","value":84.9,"unit":"$B","change":-10.87,"changeLabel":"% over month"},{"label":"DEX volume (month)","value":258.1,"unit":"$B","changeLabel":"31 days"},{"label":"Protocol fees (month)","value":2403,"unit":"$M","changeLabel":"31 days"}],"series":[{"label":"Ethereum TVL ($B)","points":[["2026-10-01",53.1],["2026-10-02",53.2],["2026-10-03",53.1],["2026-10-04",53.2],["2026-10-05",54.1],["2026-10-06",54.1],["2026-10-07",53.9],["2026-10-08",52.3],["2026-10-09",50.9],["2026-10-10",51],["2026-10-11",51.3],["2026-10-12",51.6],["2026-10-13",50.2],["2026-10-14",50.8],["2026-10-15",49.9],["2026-10-16",50],["2026-10-17",49.5],["2026-10-18",49.4],["2026-10-19",49.6],["2026-10-20",49.3],["2026-10-21",50.2],["2026-10-22",50.6],["2026-10-23",49.4],["2026-10-24",49.2],["2026-10-25",49],["2026-10-26",48.5],["2026-10-27",48.2],["2026-10-28",46.1],["2026-10-29",46.3],["2026-10-30",43.2],["2026-10-31",43.9]]}],"table":{"columns":["Chain","TVL at month end ($B)","Change over month %"],"rows":[["Ethereum",43.86,-17.51],["Bitcoin",6.1,36.55],["Base",5.84,-6.88],["Tron",5.53,-1.71],["Solana",5.45,-15.68],["BSC",5.24,-7.58],["Hyperliquid L1",2.66,2.09],["Arbitrum",1.43,-0.14]]},"notes":["TVL values are month-end readings from DefiLlama history. DEX volume and fees are summed over the calendar month."],"sources":["DefiLlama"],"confidence":"high","prose":"Total value locked in DeFi stood at **$84.89B** at the end of October 2026, down 10.87% over the month, and DEX volume totaled $258.14B across the 31 days. Protocol fees came to $2,403M over the month.\n\nEthereum held $43.86B of TVL at month end, down 17.51%. Its TVL was $53.1B on October 1 and $53.9B on October 7, then fell to $46.1B on October 28 and $43.9B on October 31. Bitcoin chain TVL rose 36.55% to $6.1B. Base held $5.84B (down 6.88%), Tron $5.53B (down 1.71%), Solana $5.45B (down 15.68%) and BSC $5.24B (down 7.58%). Hyperliquid L1 held $2.66B, up 2.09%, and Arbitrum held $1.43B, down 0.14%. Bitcoin and Hyperliquid L1 were the only chains in the table to post gains."},{"id":"macro-backdrop","title":"Macro backdrop: Fed, yields, dollar and the month ahead","chart":null,"headline":"The effective Fed funds rate ended October 2026 at 3.88% and the US 10-year yield at 4.98%. 8 key US data releases and rate decisions are scheduled for November 2026.","metrics":[{"label":"Fed funds rate (effective)","value":"3.88%","unit":"","change":0,"changeLabel":"vs previous month"},{"label":"US 10-year yield","value":"4.98%","unit":"","change":-0.31,"changeLabel":"vs previous month"},{"label":"US 2-year yield","value":"4.61%","unit":"","change":-0.27,"changeLabel":"vs previous month"},{"label":"Broad dollar index","value":121.3,"unit":"","change":0.35,"changeLabel":"vs previous month"},{"label":"US M2 ($T, September 2026)","value":23.41,"unit":"","change":0.11,"changeLabel":"vs the month before"},{"label":"Gold (month return)","value":-6.78,"unit":"%"},{"label":"S&P 500 (SPY) (month return)","value":-0.91,"unit":"%"},{"label":"Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) (month return)","value":-6.66,"unit":"%"}],"series":[],"table":{"columns":["Date","Scheduled release or rate decision (November 2026)"],"rows":[["2026-11-03","Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey"],["2026-11-05","Bank of England rate decision"],["2026-11-06","Employment Situation"],["2026-11-10","Consumer Price Index"],["2026-11-13","Producer Price Index"],["2026-11-17","Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services"],["2026-11-25","Gross Domestic Product"],["2026-11-25","Personal Income and Outlays"]]},"extra":null,"notes":["Rates and yields from FRED. Release dates are as scheduled by the publishing agencies and central banks and can change."],"sources":["FRED","Twelve Data"],"confidence":"high","prose":"The effective Fed funds rate ended October 2026 at **3.88%**, unchanged from the previous month, while the US 10-year yield stood at 4.98%, down 0.31 percentage points, and the US 2-year yield at 4.61%, down 0.27 points. The broad dollar index was 121.3, up 0.35 over the month. US M2 stood at $23.41T as of September 2026, up 0.11 from the month before.\n\nGold returned -6.78% in October, the S&P 500 (SPY) returned -0.91% and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) returned -6.66%. The policy rate showed no change over the month, while both Treasury yields in the data moved lower. Eight key data releases and rate decisions are scheduled for November 2026."}],"outlook":"The November calendar opens with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on November 3, followed by the Bank of England rate decision on November 5 and the Employment Situation report on November 6. The Consumer Price Index is scheduled for November 10 and the Producer Price Index for November 13, with Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services on November 17. Gross Domestic Product and Personal Income and Outlays are both scheduled for November 25.","quote":"Cryptohub's Macro Cycle Score ended October 2026 at 33/100 in the Lower Mid-Range, while Bitcoin fell 7.41% and US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $516M of net outflows.","dataThrough":"2026-10-31","partial":false,"collectedAt":"2026-11-02T07:09:34.432Z","model":"claude-sonnet-5-5","generatedAt":"2026-11-02T07:09:34.782Z","updatedAt":"2026-11-02T07:12:10.733Z","publishedAt":"2026-11-02T07:12:10.733Z","createdAt":"2026-11-02T07:09:34.782Z","numberCheck":{"checked":260,"unmatched":[],"unmatchedCount":0,"at":"2026-11-02T07:11:40.600Z"},"wordCount":1768},"canonical":"https://cryptohub.gg/reports/crypto-market-report-october-2026"}